ACUS11 KWNS 231304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231304=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-231500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0907
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Areas affected...central and southern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231304Z - 231500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A strong gust or two -- or marginal hailstone -- will
remain possible across central/southern Arkansas over the next
couple of hours. Marginal/isolated nature of the risk should
preclude WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms over southwestern
Arkansas evolving a bit upscale linearly, with some bowing evident
-- suggesting an at least somewhat-organized cold pool. Flow
through the lower troposphere remains moderate/southwesterly, and
thus not overly supporting well-organized storms. Additionally the
morning LZK RAOB reveals an anticipated/nocturnally induced weakly
stable surface-based layer. These factors should act to limit
overall wind risk, but with a stronger gust or two possible.=20
Marginal hail near severe levels may occur with a stronger updraft
or two. Overall however, given limited local risk apparent at this
time, WW issuance is not expected at this time.

..Goss/Edwards.. 05/23/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Y537IvlkC8qRd-ow4U0Y5iXPngYkDpPyTCRVXlxR2ewJu4de_qocGe8g058_zTEGB9FM2NBd= e6pd_BScR5ANaAE1u8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33809426 34009366 34439339 34809272 35199193 34979133
34209118 33479147 33179213 33409400 33809426=20


=3D =3D =3D
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