ACUS11 KWNS 290031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290030=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-290200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas into northwestern
Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 480...

Valid 290030Z - 290200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 480 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 480.
Severe gusts remain the primary threat in the near term, with large
hail also possible. A tornado cannot be ruled out if storms can
develop or move into an environment characterized by better
low-level shear.

DISCUSSION...Intense multicell and transient supercell structures
continue to progress eastward across northeastern KS amid a strongly
unstable environment (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE per 00Z TOP RAOB). Regional
radar suggests these storms are exceeding 50 kft in height, with the
Geary County, KS having a history of severe hail and wind gusts
(including a recent report of an ASOS-measured 75 mph gust). Despite
around 45 kts of effective bulk shear present (00Z TOP RAOB),
regional VADs depict modest low-level shear over eastern KS, which
may be why the ongoing storms have been outflow dominant, struggling
to maintain classic supercell structure. As such, severe gusts
should remain the main threat, at least in the near term. Severe
hail will also be possible with updrafts reaching peak intensity.=20

A southwesterly 925-850 mb low-level jet is forecast to intensify
through evening, which should boost low-level hodograph size and
curvature, If relatively discrete storms can avoid being undercut by
outflow and ingest greater low-level shear this evening (before the boundary-layer stabilizes), a tornado may still occur.

..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ex3fkMbB9IBjgj6jgnvc7ij8qPaPFHrfoU0d2QGK-m31s1JQQPHKpSUAWFaosGKkigoZo9wP= NXx5NwSXY4jsS00HIM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 39129734 39819634 40429439 40499320 40109295 39389292
38939372 38579479 38359562 38479641 38689705 39129734=20


=3D =3D =3D
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