ACUS11 KWNS 091746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091745=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-091945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1564
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024

Areas affected...Portions of New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091745Z - 091945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Splitting marginal supercells will be capable of isolated
large hail and damaging winds this afternoon. A watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a low amplitude mid-level shortwave trough,
convection has been gradually deepening in New England as
temperatures have risen into low to mid 80s F. While severe surface observations are showing low 70s F dewpoints, some mixing is
expected and dewpoints will likely setting into the upper 60S F.
Lapse rates aloft are quite weak, but the moist airmass will support
500 to perhaps around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE later this afternoon.
Hodographs are generally long and straight, though modest low-level
curvature is evident on the KGYX VAD. The wind profile will support
splitting supercells, though the weak lapse rates aloft should
moderate storm intensity. The overall thinking is that as storms
gradually intensify they will be capable of large hail (1-1.5 in.)
and isolated damaging winds (45-60 mph). Per the KGYX VAD, low-level
shear is enough to support weak low-level rotation in the strongest
storms, but the tornado threat is still expected to be very low.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/09/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9FvEbUuEkqzbHneS1uzqR2mbbFxYH3B5GRaROO5vp2_Zz-ETQG4TxGx9RMvrnh9_hpSeq6Am8= yf5L84CoOUVs-t3u78$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON 42577395 43857372 44637200 45226953 45316770 45036737
44486866 43397059 42447097 41917157 41807308 41897357
42577395=20


=3D =3D =3D
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