ACUS11 KWNS 160538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160538=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-160745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1646
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Indiana...Western and Central
Ohio...Southeast Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542...543...

Valid 160538Z - 160745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542, 543
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat may continue for a few more hours
across the southern Great Lakes region. The threat is expected to
impact parts of western and central Ohio. However, the threat is
expected to become more isolated with time.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a decaying linear
MCS from southern Lower Michigan into central Indiana and Central
Illinois. The eastern most part of the MCS is located near a pocket
of strong instability, where MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the
3000 to 3500 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, the
convective line is being supported by a shortwave trough, evident on
water vapor imagery over the southwestern Great Lakes. A distinct 50
to 70 knot rear inflow jet is analyzed by the RAP just behind the
MCS. This feature will help the linear MCS to remain strong enough
for an isolated wind-damage threat for a few more hours. However,
satellite imagery shows warming cloud tops over the last hour,
corresponding to more ragged reflectively on radar, suggesting that
the MCS will continue to gradually decrease in intensity.

..Broyles.. 07/16/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4YGvDFMrfG0icFho-1EH7A1hzA6D70XxGXGocDh_hpnylbmT5wQBcQmEoT910hHXZ1mEOf8vL= 2dWu8HPwrlSkG-3nFQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON 39638643 39438639 39258609 39128494 39328362 39948253
40698197 41368184 41888220 42238297 42528453 42418507
41958514 41118520 40398572 39888622 39638643=20


=3D =3D =3D
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